Apple’s stock took a minor confidence hit today, as JPMorgan lowered its price target, though the firm kept its overall rating intact.
The adjustment comes as analyst Samik Chatterjee and his team dial back expectations for Apple’s medium-term revenue and earnings, citing weakening demand drivers tied to the upcoming iPhone 17 cycle. Here are the details.
A 4.17% reduction, but with no change in rating
Chatterjee cut his 12-month price target for AAPL from $240 to $230, citing weaker iPhone 17 expectations, ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, and a slower-than-expected path for Apple’s AI strategy to deliver meaningful returns.
Still, the overall stock rating was kept at “Overweight”, which suggests the firm remains optimistic about Apple’s longer-term roadmap.
Here’s Chatterjee:
“Our more bearish view in relation to the volume outlook for iPhone 17 series is in conjunction with our unchanged expectations for a stronger cycle in iPhone 18 series with the launch of a foldable smartphone as well as further progress in relation to AI features that have been long awaited and delayed. (…) We forecast iPhone 18 series to see a stronger volume cycle, led by more material changes in the products including the launch of a foldable phone as well as broader AI-related features.”
As reported by Invertor’s Business Daily, the note also pointed to a modest pullback in consumer appetite for upgrades this fall, as purchases earlier this year (spurred by anticipated tariff hikes) likely pulled demand forward.
That dynamic tracks with other recent forecasts, including a recent Counterpoint report pointing to early upgrade behavior linked to the pricing uncertainty in the height of the US-China trade tensions.
Finally, the analysts still expect near-term results to hold up, thanks in part to subsidies in China. But ultimately, JPMorgan now sees slower growth in fiscal 2026, with stronger upside only kicking in by 2027, when Apple’s AI investments are expected to start contributing meaningfully to its bottom line.
Apple’s stock closed today at $201, slightly down at -0.28%.
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